Ahead of a June 31 deadline for negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program, a poll conducted by iPOS in May 2015 suggests that a majority of Iranians favor a nuclear deal with the West (63%) while two-thirds of Iranians remain skeptical about the prospect of a final deal and report less trust in the U.S. and other Western countries.
iPOS also found that 52% of Iranians answered affirmatively to the following prompt: “If Iran and the West reach a nuclear deal, would you agree or disagree with a normalization of relations between Iran and the US?”
A majority of Iranians (63%) approve of a deal being reached between Iran and the West, compared to just 9% who disapprove. Twelve percent of Iranians say they would approve a deal if it is not against Iran’s national interest and 16% register other alternatives such as “I don’t know” or “I have no idea.”
A poll last November conducted by iPOS showed that 65% answered the same question affirmatively, with 11% opposing such a proposition and 9% saying that they would support a deal conditionally.
Respondents were markedly split by their geographical location and age group. Those who were located in an urban area were more likely to approve a deal.
Prospect of a Final Deal
Just one-third of Iranians trust the U.S. and the West to keep their promises about their commitments regarding Iran’s nuclear program. When people were asked whether they trust the U.S. and the West, just nine percent say they mostly trusted them and 23% said that they trust them somewhat. Fifteen percent report that they will never trust the U.S. and the West at all and 23% believe there is a very low chance for a long-term commitment beyond a nuclear deal.
Marked differences are apparent across age cohorts, with younger Iranians aged 45 and less more likely to say they trust the U.S and the West.
Women are more likely than men to express distrust of the U.S and the West in keeping their promises.
Those surveyed were asked whether they favor or oppose normalization of Iran-U.S. relations, in the event that Iran and the West reach a nuclear deal. Fifty-two percent of Iranians say they support such a normalization, while 20% oppose. Eleven percent of Iranians say they support a normalization of Iran-U.S relation if it would not oppose Iran’s national interest and on the condition that the United States would not intervene in Iran’s domestic issues. Seventeen percent register other options like “I don’t know” and “I have no idea.”
Data analysis indicated that approval of the normalization of Iran-U.S. relations is varies in a statistically significant way between respondents with and without higher education.
- Results are based on telephone interviews conducted from May 27 to 29, 2015, with a random sample of 680 Iranian adults aged 18 and older who are currently residing in Iran.
- The iPOS proportional two-stage sample includes respondents from every province.
- Results are weighted by gender, age and location (urban vs. rural areas) based on the Iranian national census of 2011.
- Based on the sample, it can be stated with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ± 3.8 percentage points.
- Native Persian speakers conducted the interviews during daylight hours in Iran. Interviewers were trained prior to conducting the poll.