A new iPOS poll finds that Iranian voters’ electoral preferences are scattered among a number of likely nominees enjoying the support of at least 2% of voters. These probable candidates were identified by respondents when asked an open-ended question about their preference for the next president of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Mr. Hassan Rohani finishes first at 27%, trailed by Mr. Mahmood Ahmadinejad at 21%. Mr. Mohammad Khatami registers 11% support and Mr. Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani registers 10%.

Other potential contenders include mayor of Tehran Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, former head of Revolutionary Guard Mohsen Rezaee, former Secretary of National Security Council Saeed Jalili, and current minister of foreign affairs, Mohammad Javad Zarif, who enjoys respondents' favorability at rates of 9%, 5%, 4% and 2% respectively.

Survey Methods:

  • Results are based on telephone interviews conducted on Feb 14 to 15 2015, with a random sample of 735 Iranian adults aged 18 and older who are currently residing in Iran.
  • The iPOS proportional two-stage sample includes respondents on landlines and cellular phones representing every province.
  • Results are weighted by gender, age and location (urban vs. rural areas) based on the Iranian national census of 2011.
  • Based on the sample, it can be stated with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ± 3.6 percentage points.
  • Native Farsi speakers conducted the interviews during daylight hours in Iran. Interviewers were trained prior to conducting the poll.

Remarks:

  • Among all respondents, 60% were either undecided or expressed that it is too soon for them to make a decision.